The Next Bitcoin Halving: Will It Push Prices to New Highs?

The Next Bitcoin Halving Will It Push Prices to New Highs – Halving history and predictions
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For decades, buying a home has been Canada’s default wealth-building strategy. Real estate wasn’t just shelter—it was a retirement plan, an investment, and often the largest source of net worth.

Over the past ten years, however, another asset has quietly entered the conversation: Bitcoin.

This article compares how Canadian housing and Bitcoin performed over the last decade—not to crown a winner, but to understand risk, costs, liquidity, and long-term trade-offs. For Canadians looking to diversify beyond property, this often begins with learning how to Buy Bitcoin in Canada directly and securely.


The Setup: Two Canadian Investors (2015–2025)

To keep the comparison grounded, imagine two hypothetical Canadians starting in 2015.

Investor A: Housing

  • Buys a representative Canadian home
  • Holds it for ten years
  • Pays mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and transaction costs

Investor B: Bitcoin

  • Buys and holds Bitcoin over the same period
  • Uses self-custody
  • Does not trade, leverage, or attempt to time the market

Both investors stay invested through volatility—mirroring how most real people invest.


Housing Returns: Strong, but Not Free

Canadian real estate delivered solid headline returns over the past decade, especially in major urban centres. But gross price appreciation doesn’t tell the full story.

Housing comes with ongoing costs:

  • Mortgage interest
  • Property taxes
  • Insurance
  • Maintenance and repairs
  • Legal and closing fees

These expenses quietly reduce net returns. Housing also concentrates risk in a single asset, location, and regulatory environment—stressful even when prices rise.


Bitcoin Returns: Volatile, but Asymmetric

Over the same period, Bitcoin experienced sharp drawdowns followed by powerful recoveries. Despite volatility, long-term holders who simply held through cycles saw substantial appreciation.

Key characteristics shaping Bitcoin’s performance:

  • Fixed supply of 21 million
  • Global, 24/7 liquidity
  • No carrying costs
  • No geographic concentration

This asymmetric profile is why Bitcoin increasingly appeals to investors focused on long-term preservation and upside asymmetry, including those served by Bitcoin for High Net Worth Canadians.


Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sums

Most Canadians don’t invest perfectly.

In housing, equity builds slowly in a single, illiquid asset.
In Bitcoin, many investors dollar-cost average—buying small amounts over time, especially during downturns.

This approach smooths volatility and lowers timing risk, making Bitcoin accessible even without large upfront capital.


Liquidity and Flexibility

Liquidity is where the contrast becomes most obvious.

Housing

  • Takes weeks or months to sell
  • High transaction costs
  • Dependent on credit conditions

Bitcoin

  • Can be moved or sold globally, anytime
  • No intermediaries required
  • Fractional ownership allows flexibility

This liquidity has enabled new settlement models, including Bitcoin for Real Estate Canada, where Bitcoin itself can be used as a transaction rail.


Risk Looks Different — Not Smaller

Both assets carry risk, but of different kinds.

Housing risk

  • Interest-rate shocks
  • Local market downturns
  • Regulatory and tax changes

Bitcoin risk

  • Price volatility
  • Regulatory uncertainty
  • Custody mistakes

For Bitcoin holders, the biggest risk isn’t price—it’s losing access. That’s why businesses and sophisticated investors increasingly prioritize custody planning through Corporate Treasury Bitcoin Canada frameworks.


The 2025–2030 Outlook

Looking ahead, both assets face headwinds and tailwinds.

Housing

  • Affordability remains strained
  • Rates and supply constraints matter
  • Returns may normalize

Bitcoin

  • Volatility will persist
  • Supply issuance continues to decline
  • Adoption and financial literacy keep expanding

Neither path is guaranteed. Diversification across fundamentally different assets has historically reduced risk.


So What Should a Canadian Do?

This comparison isn’t an argument to sell your home—or to go all-in on Bitcoin.

It’s a case for balance.

For many Canadians, a thoughtful approach looks like:

  • Keeping the home that fits your life
  • Reducing concentration risk where possible
  • Adding assets with different risk drivers
  • Learning before allocating

A measured Bitcoin allocation, held long term and stored securely, can complement real estate rather than replace it.


Final Thought

For decades, Canadian wealth was almost synonymous with housing. The last ten years introduced a new variable.

Bitcoin doesn’t replace real estate—but it challenges the idea that one asset should carry all the weight.

Understanding the differences matters more than picking sides.

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